Demographic catastrophe: UOC destruction as a way to destroy Ukraine

On October 5, 2023, a scandalous incident occurred in the Verkhovna Rada. MP Oleksiy Honcharenko from the "Eurosolidarity" party said that in 1991, the total fertility rate (the average number of children that would be born to a female over their lifetime) was 2.3. Today, it is catastrophically low at 0.7 (at least 2.1 is needed for nation preservation).

Honcharenko stated, "If we don't start supporting the family, the mother and the child now, in 10-20 years, there will be no one to represent us in this hall."

In response to these words, MP Roksolana Pidlasa from the "Servant of the People" party “humorously” remarked from the rostrum, "Oleksiy Oleksiyovych, let me go to increase the fertility rate!" This phrase caused wild laughter and delight in the hall, starting with Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk. The MPs literally could not calm down for several minutes.

However, is there really cause for amusement? The situation is more than serious, and Honcharenko's words are not an exaggeration.

Ukraine's population has not grown since 1960; in the 1990s, it started to rapidly decline, and since the beginning of the war in 2022, it has fallen catastrophically. Speaking on a telethon, Oleksandr Hladun, Deputy Director for Research at the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, stated that, according to his Institute's data, Ukraine's population today may be between 28 to 34 million people. Unfortunately, more pessimistic estimates tend to be more objective. This means that today we are almost half as many people as we were at the dawn of independence.

The trends and prospects are even more discouraging. According to Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, "To have a simple generational replacement, one woman should give birth to 2.13-2.15 children on average during her lifetime. In 2021, our indicator was 1.1. In 2022, it was even lower, but the decline won't be catastrophic due to children born in the first half of the year. God willing, in 2023, we'll stop at 0.8."

According to ‘The Wall Street Journal’, Ukraine's fertility rate was already the lowest in Europe before Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. After February 24, 2022, it plummeted drastically. In the first six months of 2022, the number of births decreased by 28% compared to the same period in 2021.

In early September 2023, the Internet resource ‘Action on Armed Violence’ (AOAV) published a study titled "Cradles and Conflicts: Is Ukraine Facing a Demographic Death Spiral?" referring to an unnamed document claiming, "Ukrainian demographers predict that the total birth rate will drop to 0.71 in 2023-2024, which would be the lowest ever recorded worldwide." Another statement by E. Libanova is cited: "I think we are in a situation where Ukraine's population could end up in a death spiral... Even if victory is achieved, the birth rate will not recover."

E. Libanova also mentions the rise in mortality in Ukraine in an interview with the French agency PFI: "In Ukraine, a third of boys who are now 16 years old risk not living to retirement age. In the conditions of war, the already low birth rate will soon decrease by almost half. And due to migration caused by the Russian invasion, the state may lose its most talented and active citizens."

She also addresses the average life expectancy, saying, "For men, it's 57 years, for women – 68. That's very low. But until the war ends, the situation cannot improve."

While Ukraine's total fertility rate (TFR) is expected to be 0.71, indicating irreversible population decline, it's a different story in some other countries. The poorest African states are at the top of the TFR ranking:

• Niger - 6.89;
• Somalia, 6.42;
• Chad, 6.35;
• Congo, 6.21;
• Mali - 6.04.

But Central Asian countries are also in a favourable situation:

• Tajikistan - 3.24;
• Kazakhstan - 3.13;
• Kyrgyzstan - 3.00;
• Uzbekistan - 2.90.

A very serious population growth is also in the Middle East: Iraq, Pakistan and Syria.

We have cited data on these countries for a reason. In the interview mentioned above, Hladun emphasised that continued population decline would lead to Ukraine losing its influence in Europe and changing the ethnic composition of the nation. That is, there will be not just fewer of us. Instead of Ukrainians, other nationalities will live on this land. Of course, we cannot say for sure that people from the countries with the highest TFR will inevitably come to Ukraine, but to some extent, this disproportion will influence migration flows, which means that ethnic Ukrainians will be replaced by people from the poorest countries with a low level of education and a completely different mentality. This, in turn, threatens a sharp increase in inter-ethnic conflicts and a worsening of the crime situation in general.

MP Mykhaylo Tsymbaliuk says: "I do not rule out that migrants who are not picky about the level of payment may appear in the state. It is difficult to say from which countries these people may come from. But Ukraine should be ready for a wave of migrants."

And such a scenario is not just a probability.

If there are not many people in fertile lands with a beautiful climate and abundant resources, nations from other territories will settle there. The numbers unmistakably indicate that this will indeed happen; the only question is when.

In order to at least mitigate such events, the primary task of the state is to facilitate the return of refugees to Ukraine, who left their homeland to escape the horrors of war. It should be noted that Ukraine will also have to negotiate the return of its citizens with the countries that sheltered them. These states not only bear the expenses for providing social assistance to our compatriots but also benefit from their labour activities. Moreover, this includes not only low-skilled and low-paid labour. As E. Libanova says: "According to German and Polish researchers, 70% of Ukrainian women who left after the start of the war have a higher education. Young women with children were predominantly evacuated – proactive individuals who were not afraid to leave for the unknown. It is clear that their husbands also have a higher education and are roughly the same age." E. Libanova assesses as very high the risk that after the war when men have the opportunity to travel abroad the population outflow will increase even more.

"But there is another risk. After the cancellation of martial law, families may reunite not in Ukraine but abroad. The latest poll in Poland showed that among Ukrainians, there is a very high percentage of those employed. And if people are employed, even if not in their speciality, and their children are already studying abroad, while in Ukraine, on the contrary, housing is destroyed, and there are no jobs – people are likely to stay abroad. In other words, if husbands go to their wives abroad, we will not just lose millions, but we will lose the most active people with a high level of intelligence, people of reproductive and working age. Therefore, when talking about the demographic crisis, I would consider not only quantitative but also qualitative indicators," says Libanova.

What can make Ukrainian refugees return? First of all, it is security and economic situation. If Ukraine not only wins the war but also receives guarantees of its security for the future, and if significant investments come to Ukraine, then returning home will be seen by many migrants as a good decision. On the plus side, as a rule, these people have relatives and real estate in Ukraine, which they cannot afford to acquire in European countries. But the downside is that the economic conditions must be not just attractive but so attractive as to make Ukrainians refuse the economic opportunities offered to them by European countries where demographic issues are also a concern and Ukrainian children will be favoured.

But there is one group of refugees to whom the state should pay special attention and whose return it should facilitate in the first place. These are religious people. After all, in the families of religious people, the birth rate is much higher than in non-religious families. This is a fact. For a person who is religiously motivated to have children, factors such as low wages, housing problems and the like play a lesser role. Simply put, Ukraine is more interested in the return of a large Ukrainian family than a family with one child, although, of course, this is a good thing too.

But for some reason, our state is doing just the opposite: instead of facilitating the return, it is effectively pushing the religious population out of the country. The widespread persecution of the UOC, which has been escalating recently, not only puts an end to the plans of believing "European" migrants to return home but even prompts those Orthodox Christians who are still in Ukraine to think about emigration from the country. This is especially true in the western regions of the country, where the eparchies of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church have been practically crushed and there are no parishes even underground.

At the same time, a whole network of UOC communities is already operating in Europe. And if an Orthodox Christian faces the choice of staying at home under shelling without confession and communion or going to the prosperous European Union where they can peacefully attend church, they will choose the second option.

An even more obvious choice is presented to those who have already established themselves abroad and are thinking of staying there or returning home after the war.

Archpriest Mykola Danilevych, Deputy Head of the UOC DECR, published the following letter by a UOC believer in Europe:

"The overwhelming majority of children and young people who have been studying in European schools and universities during these 1.5 years of war no longer want to return home. They are used to it and like it there. Parents are staying abroad for the sake of their children, and their hearts are breaking because they want to be in Ukraine but must stay abroad for the sake of their children. So, few people live in Ukraine, and people either don't want to return or can't, and now the authorities also want to ban the Church. Who will go there, to Ukraine like this? What are they doing? This is a real betrayal and direct harm to the country. This is yet another argument to stay there and not return to a country where you won't even be able to go to your own Church."

According to MP Mykhailo Tsymbaliuk, around 12 million people have left Ukraine today, and it will be extremely difficult to bring them back. Tsymbaliuk emphasizes that it is crucial what conditions the state can offer to these people. The MP talks about the economy and housing, but the religious factor can also be decisive for many in deciding whether to return or not.

How many Orthodox believers are among these 12 million emigrants? Even if it's a quarter, even if it's a fifth, it's still a huge number of people. People who will eventually be replaced by representatives of other nations from different parts of the world.

It's no secret that even in pre-war times, many believers did not leave Ukraine precisely because they wanted to be closer to Orthodox shrines, Lavras and monasteries, because they had churches where they used to go and pray, they had confessors who took spiritual care of them, etc. But now, all of this is being taken away from the believers. Conversely, Orthodox communities are emerging in Europe. This means that in the case of emigration, a person will no longer be left without confession, communion, spiritual support, and so on. It would not be surprising if soon there are entire enclaves of Ukrainian Orthodox believers in various European countries.

There are historical precedents for such processes: the mass emigration after the Revolution of 1917, the resettlement of a significant number of monks and laypeople from the Byzantine Empire during the iconoclastic era, and many other examples. In the first three centuries of Christian history, during times of persecution against the Church, many became martyrs, but an even greater number of Christians preferred to relocate with their families to other countries where they could live in peace.

We would like to conclude this text on an optimistic note, but unfortunately, the facts do not allow for it. Ukraine has already entered a phase of demographic catastrophe; its religious policy only aggravates it. All that remains is to cry out together with Samuel Milko, a cleric of the Orthodox St Nicholas Church in Basel, Switzerland, who published an appeal to the President of Ukraine and through him to all Ukrainian authorities on his Telegram channel: "I beg you, Mr. Zelensky, stop! For the sake of the pious people, the people of Ukraine, stop! This is not a joke."