Battle for the Throne: Who will become new Patriarch of Bulgarian Church?
On June 30, elections for the new Patriarch of the BOC will take place in Sofia. We assess the chances of the candidates for the patriarchal throne and reflect on who might win the elections.
The elections of the new Patriarch of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church, scheduled for June 30, have attracted significant interest and sparked numerous speculations and discussions for various reasons.
Firstly, the issue of the recognition of Ukrainian schismatics by the Bulgarian Church remains acute.
Secondly, this issue is directly related to the forces that, according to some experts, exert decisive influence on the Bulgarian synodals: the Phanar, Moscow, or Sofia.
Thirdly, the new Patriarch can significantly influence both the path the Bulgarian Church will take and the power dynamics within global Orthodoxy.
In any case, we are all extremely interested in who will become the Patriarch of Bulgaria. Therefore, let's try to answer this question.
Procedure and Surprise
So, in the first round of elections, the Holy Synod of the BOC selected three candidates: Metropolitan Gregory of Vratsa, Metropolitan Gabriel of Lovech, and Metropolitan Daniel of Vidin. This is a significant event, and here's why.
The elections for the Patriarch of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church follow a special procedure. Initially, the Synod selects three candidates. Often, the hierarchs vote multiple times until one of the candidates receives the votes of 10 Synod members, and since there should be three candidates, the multiple voting procedure is conducted for each candidacy.
Interestingly, unlike previous elections where the late Patriarch Neophyte emerged victorious, this time the Synod reached a decision faster than expected. This indicates that the three chosen candidates were acceptable to the synodals, suggesting certain agreements were reached within the Synod.
It should be noted that Bulgarian hierarchs can be very loosely divided into at least two groups: the first is inclined towards cooperation with the Phanar, and the second towards maintaining strong relations with the ROC.
Moving forward. It can be assumed that an agreement was reached precisely because at least one of the three candidates is a compromise figure who currently satisfies both parties. We'll discuss who this figure might be later. It is also worth noting that the role of the Patriarch in the Bulgarian Church is not as significant as in some other countries. The Patriarch must work closely with the Metropolitans (heads of dioceses), as his authority is limited. In addition, among the staff of the Patriarchy (even among those who do not hold any sacred rank), since Soviet times and, so to speak, by tradition, there are many who are quite capable of exerting a certain influence on the Patriarch. So the Primate of the Bulgarian Church should be a negotiable person who can maintain peace and stability within the Church as well as in its relations with the "outside world".
The selection of Metropolitans Gregory, Gabriel, and Daniel came as a surprise to many. Note that most experts expected other names. For example, instead of Metropolitan Daniel, Metropolitan Naum of Rousse was mentioned, who is closely associated with Boyko Borisov - a person who often has not a large, but decisive influence in Bulgaria. In addition, Metropolitan Naum was informally supported by Metropolitan Nikolai of Plovdiv, whom many consider the most influential member of the BOC Synod and an open supporter of the Phanar (recall his recent joint service with Zoria and Lotysh in Istanbul). Therefore, Naum's exclusion from the list of candidates was seen by many as a failure of the Phanariots. But, as we think, such a judgment is premature.
The point is, the list includes someone who definitely won't become Patriarch (or has the slimmest chances of doing so) – Metropolitan Daniel of Vidin, and someone who could satisfy both parties - Metropolitan Gregory.
He received the most votes in the first round. This hierarch does not provoke much controversy and seems most acceptable to all. Gregory has the support of many bishops, which makes him a strong candidate. The question is, how loyal is he to the Phanar?
Metropolitan Gregory of Vratsa
And here's the most interesting part. Most experts believe that Metropolitan Gregory is a person who holds a moderate and even pro-Russian position. However, does this mean that if he becomes Patriarch, he will continue along the same line? In our opinion, some facts indicate that everything could change.
For instance, it is likely that Metropolitan Gregory invited Patriarch Bartholomew to participate in the elections and the enthronement of the Bulgarian Patriarch. Why do we think so? Because there was no decision of the Holy Synod on this matter, and some Bulgarian politicians and hierarchs stated that inviting the head of the Phanar to Sofia was the personal initiative of Metropolitan Nikolai, who, in turn, would hardly have taken such a step without the blessing of the local hierarch.
Secondly, both Nikolai himself and other clergy and experts sympathetic to him constantly emphasize that the new Patriarch must be able to find compromises and be a loving father, not a politician.
For example, Archimandrite Nicanor, the abbot of the monastery dedicated to Saints Cosmas and Damian, cited Patriarch Neophyte as an example who, in his opinion, met all the necessary requirements – a loving, wise father, not a politician. However, as a demonstration of how a Patriarch should approach the most acute issues of contemporary Orthodoxy, he mentioned the situation with the OCU.
Speaking on the "Dnevni Red" channel, Archimandrite Nicanor stated that "when priests from Mount Athos (Athonite) Monastery, Esphigmenou, who had already served with the OCU, came to us, we wanted to get a blessing for their arrival, and the Patriarch's call was 'and serve together.'"
That is, continued Archimandrite Nicanor, Patriarch Neophyte "accepted these people in September, shortly before he was permanently hospitalized, and although he could no longer actively communicate, there was immense joy on his face from being with these people. And these people served together with Ukrainians and recognized the new Ukrainian church. This is Patriarch Neophyte, he was a good and precise Patriarch, the new one must continue this work, but use the authority among the people."
It is unknown how true Archimandrite Nicanor's account of Patriarch Neophyte's position regarding the OCU is, but his meeting with the abbot Varfolomeos from the new Esphigmenou was certainly true. And therefore, shortly before the death of the head of the BOC, some movement towards the OCU was still possible.
Returning to Gregory: can we say that in this perspective, today's "pro-Russian views" of this metropolitan could change on the very day he becomes Patriarch? Absolutely. Especially since Metropolitan Gregory has not openly declared his position regarding the OCU, the ROC (or, let's clarify, regarding the Phanar).
Metropolitan Gabriel of Lovech
At the same time, another candidate, Metropolitan Gabriel of Lovech, is known for his open support of Russia. He is active in the media and unabashedly defends the canonical structure of the Church. He has also repeatedly spoken out against the OCU and in support of the UOC. Some experts say that at the moment he is very cautious and prefers not to make sharp statements. However, even in this situation, he finds words to emphasize his distance from the Phanar.
For example, just recently he stated, "The Head of the Orthodox Church is the Lord Jesus Christ, and there is no earthly head of all the Churches."
According to him, "autocephalous churches are equal among themselves. They differ in seniority, but they are equal in authority, and the highest governing body in the Church is the Council of all Orthodox Churches. It can make decisions that must be followed by all Orthodox Churches. Otherwise, each church decides its own issues, and no one can usurp the power of a particular church within its canonical territory." It is clear that these words are directed at Patriarch Bartholomew and the overall policies of the Phanar. Therefore, Metropolitan Gabriel is clearly not their candidate.
Metropolitan Daniel of Vidin
Even sharper statements are made by Metropolitan Daniel of Vidin, who frequently criticizes the policies of the Patriarch of Constantinople. Moreover, before the elections, he accused the Phanar of intensifying persecutions against the UOC.
According to him, Patriarch Bartholomew's actions in Ukraine did not heal the schism but only deepened the crisis. "He signed and declared two hitherto non-canonical structures, uniting them into the so-called Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU), and recognized the newly created entity as the canonical Orthodox Church in Ukraine... But instead of peace reigning, as he supposed, he ignited an even more bitter division, in which literally these people whom he proclaimed canonical began persecuting the canonical Church. They seize temples, beat priests, kill – is this Christian? This is absurd." Of course, such words make him the most undesirable candidate for the Phanar and the most desirable for the ROC and all those who oppose the OCU.
Who will win?
Public opinion is divided. Some fear manipulation and illegitimacy in the elections, while others support candidates they see as defenders of traditional Church values and canons. Final results will be known tomorrow, but for now, let's attempt to give our forecast.
Let's consider the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate.
In our opinion, Metropolitan Gregory of Vratsa has the greatest chance to become the Patriarch of the Bulgarian Church, with a 50% probability.
Many see Metropolitan Gregory as the strongest candidate. He was selected first in the initial round, indicating broad support. He is known for his ability to negotiate and find compromises. Metropolitan Gregory clearly does not support either Moscow or Constantinople, which could help him unite different groups within the Church.
Reasons for his possible victory:
- Wide support within the Synod.
- Skill in negotiation and finding compromises.
- Relatively neutral stance.
In second place with a slight margin, in our opinion, is Metropolitan Gabriel of Lovech, whom we give a 40% chance.
Metropolitan Gabriel is known for his pro-canonical stance. He is active in the media and defends the Church vigorously. While his support for the Russian Orthodox Church may face resistance from those wary of increased Russian influence, his age (being over 70) could overshadow this argument. In Bulgaria, it is often said that a patriarch is usually someone seasoned with experience, not a young metropolitan.
Reasons for his possible victory:
- His pro-Russian position, ensuring him many supporters among those aligned with Russia.
- High level of public activity, prominence, and authority among ordinary believers.
- Strong convictions and determination: the bishop can mobilize his supporters and defend the position he holds.
From a human perspective, Metropolitan Daniel of Vidin has the least chance. He actively criticizes the Phanar but often attracts criticism himself due to his principled stance. Moreover, he is the youngest of all candidates (born in 1972), which certainly diminishes his chances of becoming Patriarch. Managing a Patriarch who is relatively young and principled in certain matters would be very difficult, if not impossible. However, he still has some chances:
- He holds a clear position regarding the OCU and the Phanar.
- This attracts those who consider themselves patriots of Bulgaria and staunchly oppose Constantinople's interference in the affairs of the BOC.
- He is seen as someone unafraid to speak the truth and who can elevate the Bulgarian Church to a completely different level than it is now.
- He is capable of resisting pressure from authorities on the Church.
In view of this, we give him a 35% chance.
Conclusions
Metropolitan Gregory appears to be the most likely winner due to his skill in navigating through complexities. However, there are concerns that he may steer into "Dumenko's harbor", thus exacerbating the schism within global Orthodoxy.
At the same time, Metropolitans Gabriel and Daniel also have chances of winning due to their positions, public activism, and authority among the faithful.
It's noteworthy that the current balance of power, which seems to favor candidates supporting the ROC by a ratio of 2:1, should not create a false sense of calmness – everything can change very suddenly.
Because maintaining internal stability may become the new Patriarch of the BOC's key task, and to avoid divisions and conflicts within the Church, decisions may be made that displease both the ROC and the Phanar.
One thing can be said—what matters most is that these decisions are pleasing to God.
