Cabinet of Ministers: Ukrainian population to shrink to 25.2 million by 2051
The reasons cited for Ukraine's population decline include war, low birth rates, migration, high levels of premature mortality, and labor market imbalances.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has developed a demographic development strategy for the country until 2040. This was stated in a directive from Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, published on the government's website.
It is noted that due to the challenges and threats faced by Ukraine as a result of the Russian invasion, the population of the country, according to the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences, may decrease to 28.9 million by 2041, and to 25.2 million by 2051. Forecasting is complicated by the lack of current statistical data due to the temporary loss of control over some territories.
The main reasons for this forecast are the war, low birth rates, migration, high levels of premature mortality, and labor market imbalances.
The document refers to the population census conducted in Ukraine on December 5, 2001, when the population was 48.5 million. By the end of 2024, the country's population is estimated at 35.8 million, with 31.1 million living in territories controlled by Ukraine.
"Ukraine needs systemic strategic solutions to minimize demographic risks and mitigate threats. This requires a long-term balanced program aimed at preserving human capital and strengthening state policy for post-war economic recovery and building demographic resilience," the strategy states.
As the UOJ previously reported, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) earlier noted that Ukraine has one of the highest mortality rates and the lowest birth rates in the world.
